Greater Growth Scenarios - Travel Demand Model

The RCS used HRTPO’s regional travel demand model to create a “baseline” for travel patterns and impacts in 2045. That model includes existing and planned facilities. Scenario data was calculated using the baseline information and the population and employment growth data collected from the land use model. Results for each scenario represent the total of all person trips and all travel on the roadway network, whereas the land use model results only represent additional growth in each scenario. The results below highlight key differences in these travel patterns.

Travel Demand Model Technology Assumptions

The 2045 Baseline scenario also included a set of assumptions about future transportation technologies such as CAVs and mobility as a service. The illustration below shows some of these assumptions for each scenario. These assumptions reflect the features noted in each of the scenario narratives concerning technology.

** Mobility as a Service: A platform that enables users to plan, book, and pay for multiple types of mobility services.

Travel Demand Performance Measures

The travel demand performance results below show important differences between the Baseline and Greater Growth scenario results in the amount of travel, the amount of congestion, and the patterns of congestion. They also show differences in the amount of travel and delay on harbor crossings. The maps below also reflect markedly different locations and patterns of congestion across the scenarios.

BAR CHART IMAGES

Please note, in the travel demand model results graphics, the bar heights and x-axis show the comparative quantities. The white bar represents the baseline, and the colored bars represent the scenarios. The bar labels indicate the percent change of each scenario from the baseline.

BAR CHART IMAGES

Change in Hours of Delay Due to Congestion

*Compared with 2045 baseline

Travel Demand Model Conclusions

• Travel demand performance measures for each of the Greater Growth Scenarios generally reflected the scenario narratives. For example, both land use and technology assumptions produce markedly less congestion in the Greater Growth in Urban Centers scenario, more concentrated congestion in Greater Growth on the Water scenario, and more widespread congestion in the Greater Suburban/Greenfield Growth scenario.
• There is substantially more congestion forecasted in the future, and the levels and patterns of congestion support the need for additional cross-harbor capacity.
• The patterns of congestion and cross-harbor travel show effective differentiation between the Greater Growth scenarios.